Parlay betting is one of the most popular ways to wager on NFL games, offering the allure of high payouts from a single bet. However, parlays come with increased risk, as all legs of the bet must hit for you to win. With the right strategies, though, you can improve your chances of maximizing returns while managing risk effectively. Here’s a comprehensive guide to mastering NFL parlay bets.
Understanding NFL Parlays
A parlay combines two or more individual bets into one wager. To win, each selection (leg) in the parlay must be correct. For example:
- Leg 1: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
- Leg 2: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Over 48.5
- Leg 3: San Francisco 49ers Moneyline
If all three legs win, the payout is significantly higher than if you bet on each outcome individually. However, if even one leg fails, the entire parlay loses.
The high-risk, high-reward nature of parlays is what makes them appealing. But smart bettors know how to increase their odds of success.
Strategies to Maximize Returns
1. Limit the Number of Legs
While larger parlays have greater payouts, they also increase the difficulty of winning. A five-leg parlay is exponentially harder to win than a two-leg parlay. Stick to three or four legs for a balance between risk and reward.
2. Combine Low-Risk Bets
Including low-risk bets in your parlay can stabilize your chances of winning. For instance, adding heavy favorites on the moneyline can boost overall odds without introducing too much additional risk. Just ensure the odds are still worthwhile after factoring in these “safe” bets.
3. Focus on Correlated Bets
Correlated bets are selections where one outcome increases the likelihood of another. For example:
- Betting on a team to cover the spread and the game to go over the total points suggests confidence in the team’s offensive output.
- Parlaying a quarterback’s passing yards over with their team winning the game can also create logical synergy.
While sportsbooks often limit these combinations, finding acceptable correlations can improve your chances.
4. Leverage Key Numbers in NFL Betting
Understanding key numbers in NFL spreads and totals is crucial. Common margin-of-victory numbers, such as 3, 7, and 10, play a significant role in betting outcomes. For example:
- Avoid betting a spread like -7.5 when -6.5 is available; half-point differences can make or break your parlay.
Buying points to move spreads around key numbers can sometimes be worth the reduced payout.
5. Use Live Betting to Hedge Parlays
Live betting allows you to hedge parlays if some legs have already hit. For example, if you’ve hit the first three legs of a four-leg parlay, you can bet against the remaining leg during the game to guarantee some profit, regardless of the outcome.
6. Avoid Overloading on Favorites
While favorites are appealing, stacking too many in a parlay can be risky. Upsets happen frequently in the NFL, especially in divisional games or matchups with unpredictable variables like weather or injuries. Balance your parlay with selections that offer good value, even if they aren’t heavy favorites.
7. Take Advantage of Promotional Offers
Many sportsbooks offer parlay-specific bonuses or insurance. For example, some promotions refund your bet if one leg of a parlay loses. These offers can be valuable tools for mitigating risk or enhancing potential profits.
8. Stick to Markets You Know
NFL betting offers a wide range of markets, from point spreads and totals to player props. Focus on markets you understand well rather than diversifying into unfamiliar territory. For example, if you consistently succeed with over/under bets, prioritize them in your parlays. Additionally, you’ll want to rely on reliable information sources like Doc’s NFL Parlays.
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
- Overcomplicating Parlays: Adding too many legs may look tempting for the massive payout, but the odds of hitting all legs diminish drastically.
- Ignoring Line Movements: Pay attention to how lines shift leading up to game day, as sharp movements can indicate valuable information from professional bettors.
- Betting Beyond Your Means: Parlays should complement your overall betting strategy, not dominate it. Always stick to your bankroll management plan.
Calculating Parlay Odds
Parlay odds multiply the individual odds of each leg, creating exponential returns. For example, if you bet three selections with odds of -110 each, the combined odds would be approximately +596. A $100 bet would return $696 (including the original stake).
Understanding how odds stack can help you decide if the potential payout is worth the risk.
Conclusion
NFL parlay bets can be a thrilling way to elevate your betting experience, but they require strategy, discipline, and research to be profitable. By limiting legs, focusing on correlated and low-risk bets, leveraging live betting, and capitalizing on promotions, you can maximize your returns while keeping your risk in check.
Remember, while parlays can produce big payouts, consistent success often comes from a well-rounded approach that includes straight bets and sound bankroll management. With these tips, you’ll be better equipped to tackle NFL parlays and enjoy the excitement of chasing those high rewards.
